If the Nuggets want to win this season and in the future, Peyton Watson is potentially the most important part of that equation. Outside of Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, and Michael Porter Jr., I think it’s fair to argue that Peyton Watson’s ceiling is the highest on the whole team. He has tantalizing upside, particularly on the defensive end of the ball that gives him the potential to be a game breaker.
Coming out of college, it was seen by many (me included) as an odd pick when the Nuggets pulled the trigger on the UCLA wing. He had averaged just 3.3 points per game on very poor efficiency in college. It was the lowest amount averaged by a first round pick out of college in NBA history. However, as his career has gone on – it’s become clear what Calvin Booth saw in Peyton when he was drafted.
He saw the athleticism Peyton possesses, the work ethic, the je ne sais quoi of a lockdown defender. Since coming into the league, Peyton has gotten better and better. His feel for the game has improved, his touch has gotten better, and his defense is starting to get the reputation it deserves around the league. However, there’s still a lot left on the table for him.
He is far from a finished product. This is shown by him playing less and less as the playoffs went on. He went from playing 13.7 minutes per game in the first four games of the 2024 playoffs, to just 5.9 in the next six he played in (he also got two DNPs). He is a lackluster 3 point shooter, and can struggle to find his role offensively.
However, he does have very promising flashes when playing as a ball handler. His passing jumps off the page as a strength. When you watch him, it’s clear that his feel for the game is growing from a strong place already. Whether it be pocket passes, skip passes, transition playmaking, or kick outs while driving – he has the skills of a good playmaker. He has a tool box that runs deep in terms of the types of passes he can throw.
He also grew more comfortable as a ball handler throughout the season, and it’s been a focus for him this offseason. He’s worked with Paul George and changed up his shot form – making it quicker with less of a wind up. Whether that translates to a higher percentage remains to be seen, but it’s clear that he has a drive to get better.
The Nuggets will need that to happen too. Having him and Christian Braun both be able to share the court as a positive pairing would be a massive game changer for the Nuggets. Per cleaningtheglass.com, in the 2045 possessions that they played together last season, the Nuggets posted a net rating of -6.1. That’s 28th percentile among all lineups in the NBA, and obviously the goal would be to get that into the upper 50 percent. The key to that is better shooting with both of them – as well as the lineups with those two built in. Those two are unlikely to be the focal point of many lineups for now, so they need to improve their complementary skill sets.
In those same lineups, they posted a eFG% of only 52% (for those unaware, effective field goal percentage accounts for the 3 point shot counting for more points. It adds more percentages for 3 pointers as opposed to traditional field goal percentage). So, this led to them being in only the 18th percentile in terms of efficiency. It’s no wonder when between the two of them they shot only 27.6% from the corners combined last season (34/123). Those are the shots they’re going to need to hit at an acceptable rate to replace Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
The message that has been in the media this offseason has been that Christian Braun is in pole position to take over the shooting guard vacancy, but that it is an open battle in training camp. If Peyton Watson proves to be a better corner 3 point shooter than Christian Braun, with both having similar defensive impacts (with Peyton Watson on the floor, the Nuggets defense was 0.4 points per 100 possessions better, and with Christian Braun it was 0.8 better) I could see Malone going with Peyton. He seems to want to trust Peyton, he gave him extensive run in the regular season – and while he didn’t play a ton in the playoffs, Malone gave him a chance. He wants to trust both of these guys – the more players he has that he can trust the better.
Malone wants to play young guys if they’re good enough, and with the amount of players on their rookie contracts this season, he’ll need to. It’s not a choice for him this season – a move that seems intentional by Calvin Booth. The two young guys he seems to trust the most are indeed Peyton Watson and Christian Braun.
So what’s the case for Peyton over Christian? Well, as touched on, his passing makes him a more versatile offensive player than Christian. His ability to self create hasn’t gotten to be flaunted in the NBA much, but it has flashed before. He seems less hesitant to cut the basket off the dribble than Braun does, and that versatility may lend itself to more dangerous lineups than those that include Christian Braun. Braun hesitates when shooting and cutting sometimes, and that second of hesitation can be the difference between an impressive bucket or a stunted offensive possession that stalls out.
It is worth noting that neither of them are flawless offensive players, which is proven by their lackluster offensive ratings. Peyton posted a -10.3 offensive on/off, and Christian a -11.2. Those flaws are why letting KCP walk is criticized. Last season, he was really the only wing on the roster that was good on both ends of the floor. So, whoever makes the biggest offensive improvement is likely to fill in.
Because of the passing and ball handling mentioned earlier, I wouldn’t be shocked if that was Peyton Watson. He has the better frame to emulate some of the best 3 and D wings in the association. He has a similar build to both Jaden McDaniels and Herb Jones. All 3 reportedly have around 7 foot wingspans, and their heights range from 6’8” to 6’9”. It has also been speculated that Peyton Watson has grown this offseason, thanks to a video of him next to Michael Porter Jr. from a recent Los Angeles Rams game where they look pretty close in height.
If even 75% of this clicks for Peyton Watson, the Nuggets will have a great player on their hands. An archetype that so many teams crave, but that is fairly rare. A swiss army knife defender that can contribute on the offensive end. The type of player that can be the glue to hold any team together.
