The Denver Nuggets return from a .500 road trip a little bruised and battered but also with some faces close to a comeback as they face the Sacramento Kings. The Kings, trying to climb out of the play-in games, have run into trouble with a significant hamstring injury to star Domantas Sabonis. Both teams need to stack wins wherever they can for seeding purposes, even if Denver is trying to maintain a top-3 seed while the Kings have won four straight and hope to survive this latest bump in the road in a very turbulent season. The game matters to both squads, so look for fireworks at Ball Arena tonight.
The Essentials
Who: Denver Nuggets (39-22) vs Sacramento Kings (32-28)
When: 7PM MST
Where: The Can. Denver, CO.
How to watch/listen: Altitude TV (now on Comcast!), Altitude+, NBA League Pass for those not in the Nuggets market, Altitude Radio 92.5FM.
Rival blog: Kings Herald
Injury report: Nikola Jokic – questionable (ankle), Aaron Gordon – questionable (ankle), Zeke Nnaji – questionable (ankle), Vlatko Cancar – questionable (knee), Peyton Watson – questionable (knee), Julian Strawther – out (knee), DaRon Holmes II – out (Achilles rehab); Malik Monk – questionable (toe), Domantas Sabonis – out (hamstring)
The Three Things
The thing to watch for: Nikola Jokic coverage
Jokic is dealing with an ankle thing. He was limping rather significantly in the Boston game from the jump but made no sign to come out or that he was worried about it at all. That said, it still slowed him especially in transition, and the Kings will hope to take advantage of an MVP who may have low air in one tire. That is easier said than done when their own All-Star-level big, Domantas Sabonis, is unavailable for this one. A lot falls on newly-acquired big man Jonas Valanciunas, who had 15 points and 14 rebounds to help the Kings defeat the Houston Rockets just a couple of games ago. Without Sabonis the Kings don’t have a lot of size to slow Jokic (no, Trey Lyles and Jake LaRavia don’t count) so it’s imperative for them that he doesn’t get into foul trouble early. It’s very hard to swarm Jokic defensively when he is six inches taller than everyone defending him, to say nothing of trying to defend him one-on-one in that scenario. If Jokic can get a couple of fouls on Jonas early it will open up both the boards and the offense in huge ways, no pun intended.
The thing to remember: this is not the same Kings team
Without De’Aaron Fox and Sabonis, this squad will not function like they did when Denver saw them earlier in the year. Zach LaVine brings a slightly different set of challenges, but especially if Monk is limited the Nuggets have ways to defend what the Kings are trying to do that they may have struggled to do against Fox. Lightning-quick guards are a struggle for Denver’s guards and wings, so replacing that with a more perimeter-guard-oriented approach helps Denver even if Doug Christie has found some early success adapting to the new form of his team. Denver needs to Know Their Personnel and defend the Kings as they are, not as they used to be.
The thing to bet: over 236.5 (-110)
Let’s just say I don’t expect a lot of defense to be played in this game. Denver’s ability to play a big at the level will be challenged if Jokic is still struggling with his mobility. Vlatko Cancar and Peyton Watson might both be available to take minutes off of DeAndre Jordan and Aaron Gordon, but those are some unfamiliar bodies in new roles for Denver and defense is where it will be felt first. And at home, I expect Denver to score and score often. Just take the over.
