Preview: Denver Nuggets try to regain control of series against Los Angeles Clippers in game 5

The Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers have played one heck of series through four games. One game needed overtime, one game was won on the closest buzzer beater in the history of the playoffs and one game the Nuggets had two shots to tie in the final five seconds but came up short. Save for a game three dud from Denver, this has been the most competitive series of the playoffs and the only one in the entire league that is even after four games. Whichever team can win tonight’s game will shift the series in their favor and have the inside track to facing the awaiting Oklahoma City Thunder in the second round.

The Essentials

Who: Denver Nuggets (2-2) vs Los Angeles Clippers (2-2)

When: 8PM MDT

Where: The Can. Denver, CO.

How to watch/listen: Denver Stiffs does not condone piracy, unless it’s the romanticized 17th century type. TNT, Altitude Radio 92.5 FM. Dress up like one of the Nuggets starters and David Adelman will probably play you 40+ minutes.

Rival blog: 213 Hoops

The Matchup

Injury report: Michael Porter Jr – probable (shoulder), Russell Westbrook – questionable (foot), DaRon Holmes II – out (achilles).

The Three Things

The thing to watch for: which starter carries forward their momentum

The Nuggets won game four despite getting just thirteen points from Jamal Murray, who has yet to have his typical elevation of his game in the playoffs. Still, Denver walked away from game four with a victory due to their contributing role players. Christian Braun finally started scoring, Michael Porter Jr. shot over 50% on a bum shoulder, Aaron Gordon had the play of the game with his buzzer beating putback dunk. That combined contribution offset a bounce back game from Norman Powell while the clippers “Big three” of Kawhi Leonard, James Harden and Ivica Zubac all scored 15 or more as well. Denver’s not going to get anything out of their bench unless Russell Westbrook comes back tonight and even if he does, counting on Russ is a gamble. Denver’s starters have to be the ones to get it done, tonight, Thursday and any game after that.

The thing to remember: game 5 is as inconsequential as it gets late in a series

Regardless of what happens tonight, the Nuggets and Clippers will play another game on Thursday, and maybe one on Saturday too. Game five can be somewhat of a trap in a close seven game series because it’s bookended by a massive game four and then elimination games to finish the series. While it seems to be fairly important to win, and while everyone would like to finish a series in double elimination format rather than single, there hasn’t been a ton of correlation between a 3-2 series advantage and actually advancing in the playoffs, at least not for the Jokic era Nuggets. They have played a game six in a playoff series seven times. The team leading 3-2 going into that game six has advanced to the next round of the playoffs just three times. Even more interestingly, the Jokic era Nuggets have never lost a series they trailed 3-2. So, while Denver certainly would prefer a W tonight, a loss is not a death sentence for the season by any means.

The thing to bet: A 30 point Jokic triple double (+360)

Jokic’s over/under on points tonight is 29.5 and his assists is 9.5. Now, his rebounds is 12.5 but if you parlay the over on points, the over on assists and then take the alternate prop of 10+ rebounds you land at a nice +360. Obviously, parlays are always risky but Joker seemed to figure out the Clippers defense right around the third quarter of game four and started asserting his will. The rebounds are almost a guarantee with how many minutes he’s playing and so really it just comes down to the assists in my mind. And in my mind, 10 assists is never much to ask from Nikola.