The Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers tip off their third playoff game tonight, after two incredibly tight contests. The Nuggets won the first game in overtime and faded down the stretch in the second, but both games were incredibly physical affairs between two evenly matched squads. The series could easily be 2-0 in either direction, so both squads know what they are into and adjustments will be key to taking control of this series. The first step to that is finding a way to win game three. Teams that go up 2-1 win the playoff series 80% of the time historically. With as close as these games have been, finding a way to win this is paramount for both squads. We’ll see who can make the small adjustments to take a big advantage tonight.
The Essentials
Who: Denver Nuggets (1-1) vs Los Angeles Clippers (1-1)
When: 8PM MDT
Where: Intuit Dome, Los Angeles CA
How to watch/listen: Crackstreams bad, Blackbeard good. Altitude, NBATV, Altitude Radio 92.5 FM.
Rival blog: Clipperholics
The Matchup
| Position | Nuggets | Clippers | Advantage |
| PG | Jamal Murray | Kris Dunn | Nuggets |
| SG | Christian Braun | James Harden | Clippers |
| SF | Michael Porter Jr. | Norman Powell | Even |
| PF | Aaron Gordon | Kawhi Leonard | Clippers |
| C | Nikola Jokic | Ivica Zubac | Nuggets |
| Bench | Russell Westbrook, Peyton Watson, Jalen Pickett | Bogdan Bogdanovic, Ben Simmons, Derrick Jones Jr. | Even |
Injury report: Michael Porter Jr – questionable (shoulder sprain), DaRon Holmes II – out (achilles).
The Three Things
The thing to watch: Which star will overwhelm?
Nikola Jokic missing some key free throws and making last-minute mistakes is unlike him, while Kawhi Leonard playing some amazing ball on both ends is very like him. That proved to be the key difference between the two squads in game two. Denver was able to overcome a good James Harden game in the opener, but Kawhi presents a different challenge and one Denver needs to be better prepared for in Game 3. Jamal Murray was under the weather in the last game and may not be fully back to form, while MPJ’s shoulder injury may affect him on both ends. If Denver can keep Harden under control they’ll still need a better game from Jokic than they have gotten so far. It’s not his fault that he sets the bar so high, but Denver needs him to have an outsized impact on this game to flip home court back in Denver’s favor.
The thing to remember: Denver’s defense goes as Aaron Gordon goes – but he needs Musketeers
The Nuggets have asked a lot of their starters from a minutes and workload perspective in the first two games, and that’s not going to change. Aaron Gordon will have to continue to be the keystone on defense, but Kawhi’s outburst in game two after Harden’s heroics in game one mean that Denver’s other defenders have a lot of help to give to keep Denver’s defense intact. Peyton Watson in particular will have a large role in trying to slow either man, while Christian Braun will need to be both strong and fast to keep up on the perimeter and keep Kawhi from getting to his spots inside the arc. Denver probably doesn’t have the offense to pull away from the Clippers at this point, so getting stops especially down the stretch will be paramount.
The thing to bet: Nikola Jokic over 29 points (+105)
Jokic hasn’t shot to his standards yet in the series. Part of that is defense, part may be workload catching up to him, but part is also shot variance. Some shots he would normally make, both around the rim and from the line, he just isn’t. He also knows that Mike is compromised and Jamal has not found an efficient groove with Kris Dunn hounding him. There’s gonna be a night where Jokic clears 30 points, and I’m picking tonight after the extra day of rest.
