The Denver Nuggets, winners of 9 of their last 12, head into Orlando to face the Magic Sunday afternoon. The Magic just lost two straight on the road to Eastern Conference contenders the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics in blowout fashion, and are just 3-6 in January after a hot start to the season. Denver is trying to keep their own January momentum going in the right direction after a 20-point victory over the Miami Heat, and although star Nikola Jokic had to wear an arm sleeve to protect his elbow, he said after the game that the sprain felt much better. How it feels against the Magic could go a long way toward determining Denver does against an injured Magic squad that hasn’t scored more than 106 points since before Christmas. Denver will want to dictate the pace and force the Magic into quality offensive execution, which will require commitment on both ends of the ball. Seeing old friend Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will be fun but this is a business trip to the Magic Kingdom after all.
The Essentials
Who: Denver Nuggets (21-15) vs Orlando Magic (23-20)
When: 4:00PM MST
Where: Kia Center, Orlando FL
How to watch/listen: Denver Stiffs does not condone piracy. Altitude TV where available. NBA League Pass for those not in the Nuggets market. Altitude 92.5 FM. Bring Aaron Gordon some Icy Hot for his calf.
Rival Blog: Orlando Magic Daily
Injury report: Nikola Jokic – probable(elbow sprain), Aaron Gordon – probable (calf injury management), Vlatko Cancar – out (the worst luck ever and also knee surgery), DaRon Holmes II – out (Achilles); Jett Howard – questionable (ankle), Jalen Suggs – out (low back strain), Franz Wagner – out (injury recovery conditioning), Gary Harris – out (hamstring), Goga Bitadze – out (concussion protocol), Mo Wagner – out (ACL surgery)
The Three Things
The thing to watch for: How will Orlando defend Jokic?
The Magic have the second-worst offensive rating in the league, and the second-best defensive rating. Playing without both Wagner brothers has changed how they approach games, but they play a high-energy defense with the players they have and it’s worked well against wing-heavy opposition in the past. Denver is a different beast to solve though, and without Mo Wagner or Goga the only real center they have available is Wendell Carter Jr. Their next biggest player is probably Paulo Banchero, and neither he nor Jonathan Isaac have the heft to handle Nikola Jokic on the block. Tristan Da Silva is familiar to Buffs fans but Jokic would throw him across the court like a lawn dart.
If Carter gets into any kind of foul trouble – and against Jokic I expect him to – then the Magic don’t have the personnel to defend Jokic one on one and will need to double. Their defense is excellent and they recover well, but Jokic is a unique stressor who is uniquely suited to test their defense in ways that most bigs could never dream of. The Nuggets may not be able to get the kinds of back cuts they are used to but they should still have plenty of paint opportunities thanks to the Joker.
The thing to remember: Rebounding will play a big role
The Magic are outstanding at keeping teams off the glass, ranking first in opponents offensive rebounds and second in total rebounds allowed. Part of that is due to pace – Orlando plays incredibly slowly and does not give up easy early shot-clock attempts, so opportunities are limited. That said, Denver will have plenty of capable rebounders to be able to get second-chance opportunities on offense as well as to limit Orlando’s own rebounding. The Magic are the worst three-point shooting team in the league and are bottom-tier in twos as well – they are not an efficient offense and need to chase down caroms to put points on the board. If Denver can remember that long shots = long rebounds and both grab the rock and hold onto it (Orlando is a good steals team) then they’ve got a good shot.
The thing to bet: Denver -7.5 (-110)
The Nuggets have not won a game by fewer than double-digits since the overtime win against the New Orleans Pelicans on December 22nd. Every one of the 9 wins since has been by 10+ points. The Nuggets have found their effort and intensity on defense and are coupling that with Jamal Murray’s re-emergence as a healthier offensive creator to put distance between themselves and most of the teams they face. If Jokic is in the lineup, they have been incredibly hard to stop, and a couple of offensive explosions can put a lot of distance between them and the Magic who simply don’t have the firepower to keep up. Take the points.
