Aaron Gordon has yet to sign an extension with the Denver Nuggets. The deadline for such a move is on October 21st, the league wide deadline for rookie scale contract extensions, and those of which have more than 1 year remaining on their contracts. While it is largely expected that AG will be a free agent (if he’s not extended), he does have a player option on his deal. Because of that option, the Nuggets will have to extend him by the 21st.
So far, the only news we’ve heard on such a deal is on media day when Aaron Gordon said, “I really love this organization. I love the players on this team. I love the coaching staff. So I hope we get it done. It seems like it’s moving forward in the right direction. So I’m excited. I’m excited hopefully to be extended and to stay with this organization.”
Which does seem promising! The fact that Aaron Gordon wants to stay in Denver has never been in doubt. For one, he obviously loves playing for the team. He talks about it all the time, about how Nikola Jokic sets him up perfectly for success, the culture here, etc. For two, he says it’s moving in the right direction and the best we can do at the moment is take him at his word. And for three, this is the best context for him as a player in the league.
So, this little intro is to say; I do want the Nuggets to extend Aaron Gordon. I’m not saying they won’t. I am not being super negative. I am not trying to peddle pessimism. So please, before you comment, know that this is just speculation on what it would mean if they didn’t. So, if you comment any of that stuff I’ll know you just didn’t read it.
Two Timeline Plan Fully Embraced
If this were to happen, it would mean that, in all likelihood, Aaron Gordon would walk in free agency. Or at the very least, it would cause a panic because that’s a possibility. We’ve seen piece after piece that was on that 2023 championship roster walk away. There are still 10 players left from that roster, but most of them were either rookies that season or will not matter come playoff time. About half of their playoff rotation is left.
With the departure of KCP fresh in everyone’s minds, it makes sense that it would cause a stir among the fan base if AG weren’t to extend. There’s already some speculation from local and national media that the Nuggets’ best days are behind them. That it has not entirely closed the championship window, but does hamstring their chances by a decent margin. I would have to agree with that at this point in time, because it’s one less good rotational player on an already shallow team.
However, there are some measures to make up for his absence. Even if he’s not the shooter KCP is, Christian Braun is likely a good enough defender to take on the opponents toughest guards on defense. So far in preseason, Julian Strawther has looked like a great shooter too. Those two might not be as good as KCP is in one player, but there are some decent players there you can try and plug in for KCP.
With Aaron Gordon, it’s different though. The only player that could be an heir to him is DaRon Holmes. However, as we all know, he tore his achilles during summer league. So you’d probably be relying on someone who has never played in the NBA before as your starting power forward. Or they could move MPJ to the 4 and move Peyton Watson into the starting lineup as a 3, but that still isn’t nearly as good as the current starting 5 – which leads me into…
No Longer Contenders
So, obviously this is a wee bit hyperbolic. Any team with Jokic can be a contender, but without Aaron Gordon, so much of what they do would just fall apart. He’s vital to both their offensive and defensive schemes, and there’s not many people who can play like him in the league. You’d also have to ask, out of those who can, how many would sacrifice their personal stats and role like Aaron has? Probably not many.
The teams in the Western Conference keep getting better and better, and the Nuggets have gotten worse (on paper) every season since the championship. If they take another meaningful blow to the rotation, it would probably be wraps on being serious contenders. The Nuggets can’t even replace him with another player outside of DaRon because they’ve traded all their draft picks and don’t have financial flexibility (despite that being the spin on the KCP thing, but I digress).
So What To Do?
Extend him. He’s eligible for a 4 year, $149 million contract. That’s roughly 37.5 million a season if they paid him the max. For reference, OG Anunoby is making 42 million dollars this season. Ben Simmons is making 35 million. Fred VanVleet is making almost 43 million. This is just the way the NBA is going. With the amount that the cap is jumping up – these contracts aren’t going to be that insane.
At least for me, my brain is still programmed to the mid-to-late 2010s where Timofey Mozgov signing a 4 year, 64 million dollar contract could seriously set your team back. Nowadays, Joel Embiid is making that in one season. Players like Zeke Nnaji and Max Christie are making 8 million dollars a season.
A better way to quantify it is to look at what percentage of the cap would be taken up by a salary. Over the next 4 offseasons, according to Spotrac, the cap is likely to jump to around 205 million dollars by the 2028-29 season (right now it’s at 140.5 million, it’s projected at 154.6 for 25-26, 170.1 for 26-27, 187 for 27-28, and as mentioned 205.8 in 28-29). Now, it is worth mentioning these are just projections. However, with the new TV deals that have been signed it’s a pretty safe assumption.
Going by 37.5 million dollars each year (which is unlikely, it would probably be front or back loaded, but it’s just easier to do the math this way), Aaron Gordon would take up 24.4% of the cap in 25-26, 22% in 26-27, 20% in 27-28, and just 18.2% in 28-29. Which makes it pretty clear that this extension would be worth it for the Nuggets unless ownership just didn’t want to foot the bill.
